FIRST ALERT WEATHER: Rain chances keep us chilly for the next few days

Good Sunday evening, everyone. It was nice to see the sun back in action today after the clouds picked up last night giving some of you some late night and early morning showers. While we did stay quiet through the day, clouds have been increasing since late this afternoon. That is due to another upper-level wave that will pass nearby to our north and northwest. After this upper-level wave coming out of Wyoming and Nebraska clears out, we’ll have another wave come out of the Pacific and pass nearby on Tuesday.

As the first upper-level wave passes nearby, it will bring in just enough lift and extra moisture to get some scattered showers going for parts of the Ozarks. While a few spots in northern Arkansas could see a few showers late tonight, the best rain chances seem to favor the Missouri Ozarks east of US 65 and south of I-44. While rain is the last thing we need given how we had too much on Thursday and Friday, the worst these rain chances will do is bring some occasional moderate downpours and some rumbles of thunder. Once we get past 2 or 3 o’clock early Monday morning, any rain chances will move to the east of the area.

Behind the rain chances and a cold front that passed through earlier today, temperatures will turn cold as skies turn mostly clear by sunrise Monday morning. Lows in many spots in the Missouri Ozarks could drop to 33° to 35°. Northern Arkansas and areas close to the state line may be just a tad warmer with lows in the middle to upper 30s to start the day. While we’ll stay dry as skies turn partly sunny by the afternoon, it will be a chilly day with highs back in the 50s across the board.

With the upper-level low coming out of the Pacific, that will bring mostly cloudy skies back in play for Monday night and into Tuesday morning. On top of that, indications do show another chance for scattered showers for Tuesday morning and portions of Tuesday afternoon.

If you take tonight’s and Tuesday’s rain chances and add them up, expected rain amounts don’t look impressive. Give how most will stay under half an inch after Tuesday’s rain comes to an end, that shouldn’t bring additional flooding concerns to the table.

Given the rain chances in the forecast and how we’ll stay mostly cloudy for a good portion of Tuesday, it will keep us chilly once again. After morning lows in the middle to upper 30s, highs will top out near 50° or into the lower 50s for another chilly Tuesday afternoon.

Thanks to returning southerly winds at the surface and quick upper-level ridging on Wednesday, that will bring mostly sunny skies back to the Ozarks. That will also push highs back near 60° across the area. While we enjoy a nice Wednesday, we’ll be watching a stronger upper-level system very closely come onshore in the west.

As it approaches, it will continue to keep us mild for Thursday and Friday with highs both days near 70°. While the wave could bring a few isolated showers or t-storms late in the day Thursday, have a look at Friday. The upper-level system wants to pass to the northwest with a negative tilt (northwest to southeast orientation). That setup with a strong frontal system approaching will give us a decent chance for rain and t-storms on Friday.

As for what we know about Friday’s setup, we haven’t declared it a First Alert Weather Day just yet. That being said, indications do show the general setup favoring numerous rain and t-storms that could be strong to severe. So, this is a First Alert heads up that we’re watching Friday very closely as you should also be.

In addition to the chance for strong to severe t-storms, we’ll have to watch the rain amounts as we go through the day on Friday. Have a look at how rain totals with Friday’s system alone could play out.

Expectations show that some areas southeast of I-44 in the southern Ozarks (including some areas that saw too much last Thursday and Friday) could see rain amounts range between half an inch to almost 2 inches by Friday night. If our grounds are still saturated, those amounts could at least bring some minor flooding concerns to our attention. Once we get past Friday’s system, we will trend a bit cooler but drier for the rest of the weekend. Saturday and Palm Sunday look dry under partly sunny skies. We’ll have highs in the middle 50s Saturday and in the lower 60s for Palm Sunday.

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